29 June 2026
Consumer Sentiment 19% down from last year
The June Consumer Sentiment data showed a 5 point increase from its lowest level ever, 44.8, in May, mostly due to a drop in gasoline prices, particularly among lower-income households, where “gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets,” according to the University of Michigan. However, even with the June increase, it is 19% below its last year’s level and still below its lowest level during the Great Recession!
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The Quiet Constant: Why Market Momentum Ignores the Noise
We often assume politics drives the market’s daily performance. But since 1950, over 75 years of growth, the data suggest the market plays its own song—driven more by global energy, technological innovation, and corporate earnings than by the daily news cycle
What happened to manufacturing? Are we producing anything anymore?
I am often asked if we still produce anything. Manufacturing, particularly in the Lehigh Valley, is a very sensitive subject. Manufacturing was the lifeline of the Valley in the 1970s; nearly half of all workers were employed by a manufacturing company. And they used to pay more than most other jobs. That is what people remember, but that has all changed in the Valley; now, manufacturing jobs account for a little more than one out of ten local jobs, and many other jobs pay better than manufacturing.
AI Frenzy Drives Dow, But Economy Lags Behind
In the absence of GDP updates, the best data point for assessing the economy's growth is personal consumption expenditures, which accounts for almost 70% of GDP and has a 93% correlation with it. Based on that, our model estimates 2.4% growth in GDP. The DJIA, as of the end of October and before the recent corrections, had increased by almost 11% after inflation adjustment, more than four times the economy's growth.
Gold Breaks $4,000: A Historic Surge
For the first time in history, the price of gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce, as of this writing, marking a dramatic 51% increase since the beginning of the year. This milestone is more than a headline—it’s a signal of deep economic unease and a resurgence of gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
Host, Economic Pulse on WDIY 88.1 FM
Thirty-eight years reading this region’s numbers.
Dr. Kamran Afshar holds a Ph.D. in economics and taught at the graduate and undergraduate levels from 1978 to 1988, when he founded Kamran Afshar Associates, Inc. Since then the firm has conducted economic impact studies, feasibility studies, customer satisfaction surveys and competitive analysis for banks, hospitals, manufacturers, municipalities and universities across the Lehigh Valley.
He is a primary source on the regional economy for print and broadcast media, publishes the Lehigh Valley Economic Review, and hosts Economic Pulse each week on WDIY 88.1 FM, where he serves on the board of the Lehigh Valley Community Broadcasters Association.
- ka@kaa-inc.com
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- (610) 216-3495
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With the accurate, objective, current market research data from KAA, I had the vital tools I needed to make informed, confident, prudent decisions to take our bank to the next level.
Scott V. Fainor CEO, National Penn Bancshares, Inc. -
KAA, provided us crucial actionable information about our customers and competitors. It was particularly of interest to see an independent analysis of the bank’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Your recommendations were of direct application and immediate use.
David Lobach President/CEO, Embassy Bank -
In working with Kamran, the information derived and conclusions reached were very insightful. He has been of great assistance to me in learning more about my employees and customer base…. I recommend Kamran Afshar and KAA Inc. very highly.
John M. Hayes President, AFC First Financial Corp
- All State Legal
- Allegiance Bank
- Allentown Osteopathic M.C.
- Alpha Shirt Company
- Bell and Howell
- Borough of Fountain Hill
- Cellular One
- Chadwick Telephone
- City of Allentown
- CompTel
- County of Lehigh
- County of Northampton
- East Penn Bank
- First Fidelity
- Gertrude Hawk Chocolate
- KNBT
- Lafayette Ambassador Bank
- LANTA
- Lehigh Cement
- Lehigh University
- Lehigh Valley Bank
- Lucent Technologies
- LVI Airport
- Mack Trucks, Inc.
- Mantas, Inc.
- Mauch Chunk Trust Co.
- Musikfest
- National Penn Bank
- Nazareth National Bank
- Paragon Technologies
- St. Luke’s Hospital
- The Morning Call
- Trans-Bridge
- UGI
- WFMZ-TV69
- WLVT-TV39
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